Amid the noise, August presents a tactical opportunity—if fiscal hurdles clear. With yields shifting, investors may eye short-term moves with cautious optimism.
State Street Global Advisors
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Structuring equity portfolios to withstand macroeconomic uncertainty means rethinking geographic diversification, focusing on quality stocks, and positioning for secular tailwinds from broadening AI adoption and greater defense spending.
In an environment where uncertainty is the only certainty, building resilient portfolios for a wide range of possible outcomes means diversifying differently with multi-asset strategies, real assets, and gold.
US debt levels have risen to concerning heights, prompting increased scrutiny from economists and policymakers. Although the United States continues to hold a high-quality debt rating, the growing debt burden may lead to higher risk premia, ultimately increasing the cost of borrowing.
With the labor market already in balance, tariff risks greatly diminished amid ongoing negotiations, and the Fed Funds rate still in moderately restrictive territory, we believe that the Fed should calibrate rates lower.
The prospects of tariffs continue to dominate investor anxiety. Effects from tariffs will be on consumers and corporations alike, with both likely sharing the brunt of higher prices.
Currencies of countries with the flexibility to implement fiscal or monetary stimulus in response to this shock are likely to outperform after the initial market turmoil.
Most investors believe that capital held in private hands with a profit motive is more impactful for the economy than money spent by the government.
While implementation challenges exist, a balanced approach that considers the holistic portfolio context can unlock the significant strategic potential of small-cap investments.
Cracks began to emerge in the bullish USD story during February as poor retail sales and plunging services PMI reinforced negative fiscal headlines.
Current market dynamics require investors to remain on high alert and differentiate between signal and noise. And that means continuing to climb the wall of worry in 2025.
EM equity investors have been in a defensive posture since the beginning of this month and it is fair to say they remain in a “wait and watch” mood on what we’re calling “wildcards.”