Outlook

Stocks ended the week with a strong gain as traders continued to focus on tariff talks while appearing to overlook upbeat news on inflation.

When you go from big, impulsive moves to these sideways, blah periods of time, it is a warning message that we are just consolidating sideways here.

The developments over recent months present a compelling narrative of potential transformation in the European financial landscape. While challenges persist, recent policy shifts, investments, and market recoveries signal a newfound resilience and optimism in the EU's economic prospects.

Stocks rallied the first half of the week as markets tried to anticipate the potential impact of tariffs previously announced by the White House. Soon after the closing bell on Wednesday, President Trump’s new tariffs surprised markets.

The situation remains fluid, and volatility can work in either direction. But if you’re expecting the cavalry to ride in to save the markets from themselves, don’t.

Despite economic setbacks during the Great Recession and Covid-19, South Africa is poised to almost double its growth in 2025 and 2026. Financial reforms, lower rates and inflation are expected to foster an environment of stronger consumer spending.

Three pivotal events mark shifts in market sentiment over the four months since November 2024—the US election outcome, the Fed’s December policy meeting and the February 2025 release of a key US consumer sentiment survey.

No one will know for sure, but I could imagine that if the end-of-quarter activity drove today’s gains, the rally likely won’t last and, more importantly, could be given back pretty fast.

Amid all the market turbulence of late, the Fed was a steadying influence. Stocks notched a solid gain last week as upbeat comments from the Fed helped stocks snap their four-week losing streak.

If the tariff news is generally good, then it’s a reason for optimism. If the adjustments turn out to be less meaningful, that can be overlooked if it means that the administration is willing to offer periodic bullish tidbits to the market.

The S&P 500 is not often down for five consecutive weeks, so one has to think this might be the week the market attempts a rebound. There’s a good chance of a bounce, but whether it happens is another question.

Cracks began to emerge in the bullish USD story during February as poor retail sales and plunging services PMI reinforced negative fiscal headlines.