Looking at data points seems like a waste of time. They used to matter, and given that the next Fed meeting isn’t until mid-March, the market will probably look through the report anyway.
Outlook
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The news from Venezuela, and another round of developments from across the world that may shape the course of markets over the next few months.
After the White House nominated Fed veteran Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, stocks opened lower Friday. A warmer-than-expected December wholesale inflation report and concerns about a government shutdown added to bearish investor sentiment as the week wrapped up
Markets are suffering sharp losses following an eventful three-day weekend that featured heightening geopolitical tensions amidst a violent selloff in Japanese debt that sent yields on the longest tenors to all-time highs.
It seems as though the Treasury may be preparing the market for a potential change in issuance sizes or duration at some point in the not-too-distant future, though that is admittedly speculative.
Stocks posted solid gains in an action-packed week of market-moving economic data, geopolitical news, and bullish new year sentiment. By Monday’s close, the Dow Industrials had gained enough to make the “Santa Claus Rally” a reality.
While the near-term market effect of the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is minimal—beyond select US oil refiners, Venezuelan sovereign bonds, etc.—Maduro’s capture is a major geopolitical event with profound implications for the future.
An eventful weekend featuring the ousting and arrest of communist Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro is generating outperformance in the energy sector as the US oil majors are poised to benefit from Washington’s control of the crude rich nation.
As 2025 ends, investors increasingly allocated capital to geographies where economic conditions were moving more favorably.
While only two official dissenters opposed the December rate cut, dot-plot projections reveal that six Fed members, including four “silent dissenters,” were against easing, signaling deeper division within the Fed than headlines suggest.
The tactical USD view moved from neutral to negative as a dovish Fed pivot pressured the currency. Softer labor data and rising expectations of a December rate cut halted the earlier USD recovery and kept it rangebound.
A widely anticipated Federal Reserve decision on interest rates and a rotation into non-tech areas helped push the Dow Industrials higher, while the broader market and technology stocks lagged behind.