Outlook

A sharp decline in the price of oil occurred amid speculation that the war in Iran may be over soon, given President Trump’s willingness to negotiate. However, those claims appear to have been denied by the Iranian government, leaving investors largely uncertain about what happens next.

In the span of just three weeks, we have seen oil prices spike, other commodities plunge, and interest rates surge as rate cut assumptions have been turned upside down. Nonetheless, in the month of March, US stock indices are down by less than 5%.

Markets got a volatile start to the week, with stocks falling and oil prices rising as commercial maritime traffic heading out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a virtual standstill.

Over the last week or so, the money and bond markets have been greeted with a plethora of news, both geopolitical and economic in nature. At the same time, investors have also been provided with ‘fresh’ macro news that has provided insights as to how the economy was performing about mid-way through the first quarter.

The S&P 500 dropped more than 1% on Friday as oil prices surged and the job report came in well below estimates. An open around $95 for oil would place it at its next level of resistance and its highest price since September 2023.

Escalating weekend violence in the Middle East sent the price of crude oil north of $119 last night prior to news that G7 officials are looking to jointly coordinate supply injections from their domestic reserve stockpiles.

The world around us is constantly changing, and these changes impact financial markets in a variety of ways. Inflation is up, monetary policies evolve, trade tariffs are revised, economies witness growth revisions—all these changes affect financial markets and individual asset classes differently.

Stocks fell last week amid concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) and a warmer-than-expected reading of wholesale inflation.

It is quite apparent that Donald and Marco see the Western Hemisphere as one where the US will determine what, when, and how.

While the Fed’s communication toolkit has steadily expanded since 2000—from formal post-meeting statements to press conferences and quarterly projections—a deliberate rollback of forward guidance could reduce policy transparency but also curb market misinterpretations that have plagued rate forecasts.

This insight examines the early-February 2026 volatility in US tech and equities broadly to highlight the expected long-run effects of AI on the economy, specifically areas that the market views as likely to be disrupted by AI.

This week may bring a perfect storm, - quite literally, as a bomb cyclone spins off the Northeast coast. With options expiration now behind us, markets could face their own storm.