While trade tensions with China dominated the attention during the week, some bank news also captured investor interest. Stocks pushed higher last week, buoyed by strong third-quarter results posted by several money center banks.
Outlook
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Pavlov’s dogs became conditioned to associate a bell with a reward. Does that sound all that different from equity traders right now?
With the federal government shutdown delaying major economic data releases, investors are left navigating markets without key signals. While this shutdown does not include debt ceiling standoffs, it still clouds short-term visibility for the economy.
The S&P 500 fell by more than 2.7% on Friday, which came as a big surprise to many. While the size of the decline was certainly unexpected, the change in trend was not. So what can one expect to see next?
As the midnight deadline approached for Congress to pass a continuing resolution that would temporarily fund the federal government, the prospect of a shutdown dominated market sentiment.
No matter how enthusiastic one might be about the prospects for artificial intelligence, it is fair for investors to ask inconvenient questions. Wouldn’t it make sense to maximize your impact now if you thought we were in the midst of a bubble that could explode later?
Investors are turning to the euro and yen as safe havens amid rising global uncertainty and currency market volatility. Slowing US labor markets, tariffs, and an impending Fed easing cycle weigh on the dollar, adding to a bearish outlook.
Dispersion remained the theme, with the Dispersion Index still elevated. While it could rise further, it’s something to watch—high dispersion typically coincides with low correlations.
While widely anticipated, the real news about the cut was in the finer points made by Fed Chair in the post-meeting press conference. He said the move was essentially a “risk management” cut which confused investors a bit.
The enthusiasm for all things related to artificial intelligence is akin to that of the dawn of the internet, though many of the circumstances are quite different.
With Fed policy remaining highly data-dependent at this stage of the game, getting policy to neutral is a good starting point. If the upcoming employment data doesn’t improve, or gets worse, in the months ahead, then the voting members will more than likely front-load their rate cuts and get them in before year-end…then on to 2026.
It’s unusual to see both the Dispersion Index and the Implied Correlation Index up at the same time - but stock implied volatility is climbing faster than index-level implied volatility. This is likely because risk is being repriced.