Outlook

Regardless of the broader debate, one thing does seem clear: if the Fed were truly on the verge of launching a new QE program — someone forgot to tell the three-month Treasury bill.

While the world is focused on the possibility of bringing the Russia-Ukraine war to an end, there are developments in other parts of the world that are also worth a mention.

Overall bullish holiday sentiment, positive news on a handful of AI-related megacap tech names, and continued investor optimism for the Fed to adjust rates at its next meeting powered the advances.

With the delay of government statistics clouding the outlook for growth and consumer spending, Black Friday numbers will be a topic of conservation as we begin a new month.

The Fed is inching toward neutral territory but keeping its options open—because when you’re driving in the fog, you don’t hit the gas. A December cut “not a foregone conclusion,” was a statement that sent markets scrambling to recalibrate expectations.

The middle of this week saw a volatile trading session, with the S&P 500 finishing up about 40 basis points. And then there was Nvidia doing its usual song and dance with the beat-and-raise routine it trots out every quarter.

Stocks ended mixed after a nail-biting week for investors, who grew anxious over megacap tech valuations and interest rates as the government shutdown came to an end. It takes time to get a tanker ship up and running again after a full stop.

Volatile trading on Wall Street has risk assets and fixed income swinging from gains to losses indecisively as investors await clarity on AI and the status of employment prior to making bold wagers.

Many small-cap industries and sectors outpaced their large-cap counterparts over this 6-month period, a sign of the broadening equity rally and the role of other secular investment themes in play.

US inflation is expected to settle in the upper 2% range through 2026, a level historically linked to strong corporate profits and healthy equity market returns, creating a favorable economic backdrop.

Resource availability has a crucial impact on understanding the economics of many industries. In the defense and transportation area, China is the lead country to watch because of its dominant position in many rare earth materials.

Markets wobbled following the FOMC’s decision to cut interest rates, and Chair Powell's comments that the Fed may not adjust rates in December.