The S&P 500 dropped more than 1% on Friday as oil prices surged and the job report came in well below estimates. An open around $95 for oil would place it at its next level of resistance and its highest price since September 2023.
Outlook
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Escalating weekend violence in the Middle East sent the price of crude oil north of $119 last night prior to news that G7 officials are looking to jointly coordinate supply injections from their domestic reserve stockpiles.
The world around us is constantly changing, and these changes impact financial markets in a variety of ways. Inflation is up, monetary policies evolve, trade tariffs are revised, economies witness growth revisions—all these changes affect financial markets and individual asset classes differently.
Stocks fell last week amid concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) and a warmer-than-expected reading of wholesale inflation.
It is quite apparent that Donald and Marco see the Western Hemisphere as one where the US will determine what, when, and how.
While the Fed’s communication toolkit has steadily expanded since 2000—from formal post-meeting statements to press conferences and quarterly projections—a deliberate rollback of forward guidance could reduce policy transparency but also curb market misinterpretations that have plagued rate forecasts.
This insight examines the early-February 2026 volatility in US tech and equities broadly to highlight the expected long-run effects of AI on the economy, specifically areas that the market views as likely to be disrupted by AI.
This week may bring a perfect storm, - quite literally, as a bomb cyclone spins off the Northeast coast. With options expiration now behind us, markets could face their own storm.
A stronger-than-expected jobs report initially sparked a rally midweek, but the momentum quickly faded. Stocks then came under pressure as AI disruption fears spread across several industry groups.
Two marquee macro reports this week—payrolls and the CPI—offered mixed signals on the economy. Our call for three Fed cuts this year stands. Mixed data signals continue around the globe.
Despite political noise around Fed appointments, policy outcomes will still be driven by the FOMC’s data-dependent framework, suggesting investors should focus more on rates, liquidity and duration positioning than headline risk.
Looking at data points seems like a waste of time. They used to matter, and given that the next Fed meeting isn’t until mid-March, the market will probably look through the report anyway.