Mott Capital Management, LLC

Today’s CPI came in much hotter than expected, and the impacts were felt throughout the bond market and the dollar complex.

With tightening liquidity, low implied correlations, and potential for a more hawkish Fed outlook, the upside for equities seems limited compared to the downside risks.

Despite some commentary on news networks suggesting rates aren’t rising due to inflation worries, ignoring the data is difficult.

It’s all about rates, the dollar, and inflation expectations. If economic data continues to surprise to the upside, rates could climb even higher.

If the Fed cannot cut rates as much as people expect due to persistent inflation and a relatively stable job market, we could see a bear steepener.

What if the US dollar strengthens across every G10 currency except for the Yen?

How do the long-term market cycles across various assets look?

It looks like where the market heads between now and year-end will likely rest again in Nvidia’s hands.

Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 are nearing important turning points in a rising wedge pattern.

The stability we’ve seen over the past week has faded, and natural flows will drive the market again.

August marked the fourth consecutive month without an increase in margin levels. But can that explain why the stock market has been stuck?

Social media and options add up to an unstable investing environment