Investors can track whether restrictions reach already-entitled projects and whether planned capacity converts to construction to gauge how the risk is changing.
WisdomTree
With bond yields at their highest levels since the early 2000s, let's take a closer look at what exactly happened to the global bond market last week.
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, validating bond-market expectations as persistent inflation pushed Chair Warsh to finally ‘walk the walk’ on his hawkish rhetoric.
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The number-one story in the financial markets of late has been the run-up in longer-dated Treasury (UST) yields - which have climbed back to levels not seen since before the 2007 Financial Crisis.
With inflation still sticky and labor markets resilient, the bond market may force Chair Warsh toward a September rate hike unless upcoming jobs and CPI data show clearer signs of cooling.
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With inflation still above target, the money and bond markets have clearly shifted monetary policy expectations for Fed rate hikes later this year.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is already reshaping policy communication by reducing forward guidance, questioning the dot plot’s future and emphasizing real-time data, potentially increasing Treasury market volatility.
The rise in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields, specifically the ten-year note, since late February has captured the attention of global investors in a very visible fashion. What comes next?
As inflation pressures, stronger labor data and geopolitical risks fuel the “inflation trade,” investors may want to reduce duration exposure and prepare for additional volatility across fixed income markets.
With the Fed’s dot plot historically misjudging rate paths and still projecting cuts in 2026, investors should be cautious in relying on forward guidance and consider actively managed or laddered Treasury strategies to hedge policy uncertainty.