Outlook
2442 posts
While lower costs of capital helped stocks last year and continue to do so, recent earnings calls point to the potential for lighter yields to signal trouble. As equities trade near record highs amidst rates that have drifted lower, the consideration of a worn-out consumer is pivotal.
Stocks notched a solid gain last week, rallying behind upbeat earnings, a dovish Fed, and mixed economic data.
Despite sticky inflation, the Fed reiterated that rate cuts were still on the table for this year, while several leading money center banks forecasted lower growth for the remainder of 2024 due partly to inflation and higher-than-expected rates.
The current state of the housing market remains a huge problem for 2%, as home values remain at all-time highs due to an undersupplied market and many homeowners who are locked in at 2% to 4% mortgages, constraining inventory and leading to sticky rents.
As the Federal Reserve prepares for its May 1 FOMC meeting, investors are focusing on the potential for rate cuts, but another aspect of Fed policy decision-making is flying under the radar - the balance sheet.
The commentary from Pepsi to Kraft-Heinz to Kimberly-Clark has shifted over the past 12 months from one of pricing to one of volume, driven by increasing advertising and marketing spend.
The Federal Reserve will have to wait even longer for evidence confirming that gains in fighting price pressures are durable before it turns accommodative with this morning's data showing higher-than-anticipated inflation.