The Fed’s decision-making is primarily driven by monthly inflation reports and labor market data, and renewed progress on inflation is necessary for the Fed to feel comfortable enough to begin the rate cutting process
WisdomTree
The current spread levels in the U.S. credit market are not unusual, as there have been previous periods when corporates have traded at similar or even lower levels.
Fed policy has a heightened data dependency, leading to increased volatility in the bond market. Even though rate cuts remain the odds-on favorite for later this year, investors should heed the tenor of recent Fed-speak, which reinforced the notion of rates being higher for longer.
As the Federal Reserve prepares for its May 1 FOMC meeting, investors are focusing on the potential for rate cuts, but another aspect of Fed policy decision-making is flying under the radar - the balance sheet.
The commentary from Pepsi to Kraft-Heinz to Kimberly-Clark has shifted over the past 12 months from one of pricing to one of volume, driven by increasing advertising and marketing spend.
The money and bond markets may have gotten a little complacent on inflation trends after the 2023 experience. Indeed, the peak readings of 2022 for both headline and core inflation were put in the rearview mirror rather quickly, as price pressures cooled off on an almost monthly basis.
The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the March FOMC meeting sparks a waiting game for investors, with the potential for rate cuts later in the year.
The 1995/1996 rate cut episode, which consisted of only three decreases worth 75 bps in total, serves as an interesting parallel to the current situation, where the market has finally 'come to the Fed' with respect to rate cut expectations for 2024.
Gold is a special asset that behaves differently to equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, making it a perfect diversifier to a portfolio.
The overarching outlook for fixed income in 2024 is centered on rate cuts, but we still haven't solved the timing and magnitude questions, which will continue to create an elevated volatility quotient for Treasuries until some clarity comes into the picture.