The U.S. Treasury (UST) 10-year yield could trend toward 5% in 2025, supported by a combination of historical averages and a steepening Treasury yield curve.
Outlook
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It’s all about rates, the dollar, and inflation expectations. If economic data continues to surprise to the upside, rates could climb even higher.
The whole Y2K problem stemmed from an issue that now seems anachronistic, but its market implications were felt for some time.
The risks of high tariffs and a potential trade war may have a greater impact on currency markets going forward.
Stocks finished the week mixed, bookending losses around midweek gains as investors digested fresh inflation data.
If the Fed cannot cut rates as much as people expect due to persistent inflation and a relatively stable job market, we could see a bear steepener.
Since valuations have never been a good predictor of short-term price changes, they tell investors very little about what might happen next year.
Global monetary policies diverge sharply, with the U.S. Fed navigating inflation and labor markets while other central banks cautiously extend their rate-cutting cycles.
