As we look back at our best and worst calls of 2022, it's clear that we got more correct than not. However, I wish we were more emphatic about some of them.
Outlook
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The housing rebound is expected to support the economy this year, with the sector likely to experience modest growth in residential investment.
The stock market experienced solid gains last week, concluding the trading week on a positive note, thanks to robust corporate reports and favorable inflation news.
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At the beginning of the week, stocks surged, anticipating fourth-quarter corporate updates from tech companies and the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting; this led to the S&P 500 Index reaching a new record high on Monday.
Powell reiterated that he doesn't think the Fed will cut rates at its March meeting, signaling that mid-year would likely be a better time to introduce a cut, citing the need for more data to illustrate that recent gains in controlling inflation aren't transitory.
The IRS has announced new income tax brackets for 2024, with changes that could save households with stagnant income a lower tax bill.
The expansion marks the first month of growth in nine, with business confidence being a key driver, propelling the positive change as retailers briskly increased inventories in anticipation of improved future performance.
The overarching outlook for fixed income in 2024 is centered on rate cuts, but we still haven't solved the timing and magnitude questions, which will continue to create an elevated volatility quotient for Treasuries until some clarity comes into the picture.
The market's current state is reminiscent of the early 2000s, with a focus on cryptocurrency companies and their advertisements during the Super Bowl.
For over a month, I've been concerned that markets have been pricing in a pair of conflicting economic scenarios. We first laid out the paradox in early December: equity investors say that they are hopeful for a soft landing for the economy yet seem to relish signals of more overt weakness.
The 2024 US presidential election will likely have a significant impact on markets, with the potential for policy changes and increased political volatility. The current macroeconomic backdrop favors President Joe Biden more than what political polls suggest, with most macroeconomic indicators pointing towards an improving economy.