By: Nitesh Shah, Director of Research, WisdomTree Europe and Jeremy Schwartz, CFA, Global Chief Investment Officer
Gold is a special asset. Simultaneously a commodity and a foreign exchange instrument. Cyclical and defensive at the same time. Used as a store of value and medium for exchange for millennia. With references to the metal in the Torah, Bible, Qur’an and Bhagavad Gita, its historical allure to humans verges on empyrean.
Different and Resilient
In the financial world, its unique behavioral traits1 make it a perfect diversifier to a portfolio:
- It behaves differently to equities, bonds, commodities and crypto currencies
- It is a great inflation hedging instrument
- It is a great geopolitical shock hedging instrument
- It is a great financial shock hedging instrument
- It performs well in both recessions and strong expansions
This balance between downside protection and capacity to generate positive return over the long term is unique to gold. As illustrated in figure 1, returns for most assets are broadly proportional to risk. Assets with high equity-like returns over the last 20 years have exhibited downside capture (vs. equity markets) of around 100%. Assets with lower downside capture, like fixed income, tend to have lower returns too.
Gold bucks these trends: it has exhibited equity-like returns of 8.5% per annum over the last 20 years with very minimal downside capture. Gold therefore is a uniquely suited asset to increase diversification and reduce risk in a portfolio without weighing on long-term performance.
Figure 1: Long-Term Performance and Downside Risk for Different Asset over the Last 20 Years
The Perfect Diversification Tool…
As the late Markovitz said, the only free lunch in the world of investing is diversification. That diversification is enhanced by low correlations. As figure 2 illustrates, gold’s correlations to equities and bonds are low.
Figure 2: Asset Correlation Matrix
…yet Shunned by Many Investors Today
Judging by flows out of physical gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past three years, professional gold investors appear to have turned their backs on the metal (figure 3). With repeated attempts to break above the $2,050 per ounce mark, there has been no tailwind from the ETF market. If gold successfully gets above that level, we could see ETF investors return and that could fuel a stronger rally.
Figure 3: Gold Price and ETP Holdings
Gold Poised to Reach a New High
Although soft landings have historically not provided the best setting for gold to shine, in this rate cycle we have seen gold hit a fresh high in December 2023, when markets were expecting a decisive Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot in 2024. Some of those gains have been given back as markets reassessed the Fed’s urgency, but our Gold Model points to gold rising to a higher high by the end of this year, on account of bond yields declining and the U.S. dollar depreciating.
Gold could reach $2,210 per ounce, close to 10% higher at the time of writing (February 6, 2024). Achieving the lauded soft landing is easier said than done (and that is why we have so few observations to look at). We could face a bumpy road in 2024, with the Fed and markets clearly having a different view of the rate path ahead of us. Gold’s hedging capabilities may once again prove to be the antidote to volatility elsewhere.
Solutions
Despite the strategic and increasingly tactical benefits of having gold in a portfolio, finding a space for gold is always a challenge. With bond prices having fallen so much in October 2023, many investors have opportunistically filled the defensive portion of their portfolios with Treasuries, leaving less room for gold. In a year where rate cuts are widely expected, investors are keen to maintain a large exposure to equities.
This post first appeared on February 22nd, 2024 on the WisdomTree blog
PHOTO CREDIT: https://www.shutterstock.com/g/macrowildlife
Via SHUTTERSTOCK
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