Warren Buffett's quote, 'Remember that the stock market is manic depressive,' highlights the importance of not getting caught up in short-term market fluctuations.
Outlook
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The stress and uncertainty of the recent banking crisis has reinforced four ETF truths: investors gravitate to ETFs during times of stress as valuable price discovery tools, ETFs provide additive liquidity beyond what's available in the primary market, ETF trading doesn't have an outsized impact on trading of underlying securities, and use cases for ETFs now range from traditional to complex.
While inflation may have peaked last summer, the future road may not be a one-way street to the downside, and the Fed will continue to operate under the assumption it 'has more work to do' to bring inflation under control.
The Federal Reserve is at a bit of a credibility crossroads, supervising and regulating the banking system as a means of protecting consumers is one of the Fed's most important roles.
The latest US home price data reveals a gloomy picture, with prices declining for six consecutive months with no relief in sight.
The jobs report, to begin with, was a direct challenge to the 'inevitable recession' narrative, with the completely unexpected surge of more than a half-million new jobs being created in January, combined with the lowest unemployment rate since 1969.
Fresh earnings reports fueled further gains, with positive earnings surprises from several big-name technology companies that benefited the larger universe of Nasdaq-listed high-growth companies.
Markets are returning from the extended weekend on the wrong foot, with hotter-than-expected economic data and weak corporate guidance from Home Depot and Walmart battering asset prices.
The recent blockbuster jobs report has also created a narrative that perhaps the Fed can achieve the ever- elusive 'soft landing.' However, as I write this blog post, the consensus is still projecting negative GDP to show up in the second and third quarters of this year.
The strong retail sales data for January, combined with a hotter than expected CPI yesterday and the burning hot jobs number from 12 days ago, continues to weigh on the disinflationary outlook.
The increasing use of digital payments in the United States is driving demand for tap-to-pay options and providing cost-effective solutions for merchants to digitize.
Short-term interest rates and the dollar are continuing their rapid advances today, but it appears that equity traders are torn between nervousness and the recent rekindling of their love affair with buying dips.