by InteractiveAdvisors
by InteractiveAdvisors
Outlook

Forecasts Quarter 1 2023

by |Published

By: Simona M Mocuta, Chief Economist and Jeremiah Holly, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Louis Basque, CFA, Portfolio Strategist

Global Economic Outlook

  • Global growth will slow into 2023, with US and European growth not much above zero. Risks are to the downside with sub-trend growth extending into 2024.
  • Amid improved supply and slowing demand, a powerful disinflationary episode takes hold. More favorable inflation data could see the Fed cut interest rates late this year.

Emerging Markets Outlook

  • Amid lowing global demand and constricting monetary policy, the economic backdrop for emerging markets (EM) remains difficult.
  • China’s reopening should boost EM growth performance, but risks remain.

Global Capital Markets

  • Financial market oriented signals point to an improving backdrop for capital markets just as economic growth in advanced economies is poised to straddle weak or recessionary conditions — leading to a tenuous balance of risks.
  • Bond markets present opportunities across geographies, maturities and sectors. We prefer allocations to cash and government bonds (US and non-US) to take advantage of current carry and defend against slowing economic growth.

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Originally Posted January 27th, 2022, State Street Global Advisors blog

PHOTO CREDIT: https://www.shutterstock.com/g/HTWE

Via SHUTTERSTOCK

DISCLOSURE

The views expressed in this material are the views of Simona Mocuta, Jeremiah Holly and Louis Basque through the period ended December 31, 2022 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document may contain certain statements deemed to be forward-looking statements.

All statements, other than historical facts, contained within this document that address activities, events or developments that SSGA expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. These statements are based on certain assumptions and analyses made by SSGA in light of its experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors it believes are appropriate in the circumstances, many of which are detailed herein. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, uncertainties, many of which are beyond SSGA’s control. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and that actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward- looking statements.

The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security.  It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor. All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and State Street shall have no liability for decisions based on such information.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit nor guarantee against a loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information is not intended to be individual or personalized investment or tax advice and should not be used for trading purposes. Please consult a financial advisor or tax professional for more information regarding your investment and/or tax situation.

AUTHOR

State Street Global Advisors
State Street Global Advisors
For four decades, State Street Global Advisors has served the world’s governments, institutions and financial advisors. With a rigorous, risk-aware approach built on research, analysis and market-tested experience, we build from a breadth of active and index strategies to create cost-effective solutions. As stewards, we help portfolio companies see that what is fair for people and sustainable for the planet can deliver long-term performance. And, as pioneers in index, ETF, and ESG investing, we are always inventing new ways to invest. As a result, we have become the world’s third largest asset manager with US $2.72 trillion* under our care. While State Street licenses model portfolio data enabling Interactive Advisors to build and periodically rebalance these portfolios, State Street does not have trading discretion, and it is not an adviser or fiduciary to Interactive Advisors clients investing in these portfolios. *AUM reflects approximately $32.9 billion (as of June 30, 2018), with respect to which State Street Global Advisors Funds Distributors, LLC (SSGA FD) serves as marketing agent; SSGA FD and State Street Global Advisors are affiliated.

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