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A weakening consumer likely leads to stagflation, with the credit card situation at small banks rising to the loftiest level in history, and a potential government shutdown serving a severe blow to what’s left of consumer resilience.
Despite sticky inflation, the Fed reiterated that rate cuts were still on the table for this year, while several leading money center banks forecasted lower growth for the remainder of 2024 due partly to inflation and higher-than-expected rates.