Retail sales push yields back towards upper end. The strong retail sales data released this morning from the Commerce Department points to a giant third quarter GDP print, which is scheduled for release next week and is likely to keep the Federal Reserve a focus point for investors.
Outlook
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The Fed's new mantra is to look at the totality of upcoming economic data releases to determine if their job is done, but even if there are no new rate hikes, rates need to remain in this restrictive territory for the foreseeable future.
A stronger-than-forecast retail sales report and a modest increase in core producer prices initially lifted sentiment, but consumer confidence and semiconductor news soon dented Thursday's optimism.
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The US economy has defied recession expectations, with the latest data showing a continued positive performance. Despite the cumulative 525 basis points of Federal Reserve rate hikes, the economy may still not be out of the woods, but signs are pointing to another positive performance for third-quarter real GDP.
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The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows that inflation is at its swiftest pace in over a year, with a 0.6% month-over-month increase and a 3.7% year-over-year rise.
The three-month moving average of new hiring has been consistently lower this year, a trend that is not as concerning as it might seem when compared to the pre-COVID-19 era.
The labor market has exhibited remarkable resilience, but last week's employment data showed a cooling trend
Financial advisors can help investors avoid counterproductive behaviors and pursue their financial goals with confidence, especially in uncertain markets.
Labor momentum continues to decelerate, with job growth slowing significantly in August, implying that the inflation-ridden, red-hot services sector may finally be reaching supply and demand balance.
Stocks retreated on Monday after a strong rally the previous day, driven by a credit downgrade of a few banks and weak retail earnings. Despite this, stocks resumed their upward trend on Wednesday following the release of positive economic data.