The three-month moving average of new hiring has been consistently lower this year, a trend that is not as concerning as it might seem when compared to the pre-COVID-19 era.
Outlook
The labor market has exhibited remarkable resilience, but last week's employment data showed a cooling trend
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Labor momentum continues to decelerate, with job growth slowing significantly in August, implying that the inflation-ridden, red-hot services sector may finally be reaching supply and demand balance.
Stocks retreated on Monday after a strong rally the previous day, driven by a credit downgrade of a few banks and weak retail earnings. Despite this, stocks resumed their upward trend on Wednesday following the release of positive economic data.
As I've discussed quite a bit recently, the recent sell-off in the U.S. Treasury arena seems to underscore the point that the money and bond markets have finally 'come to the Fed' and accepted this higher-for-longer theme.
The recent rise in long-term yields and the health of the banking sector will be top of mind for investors while Powell and the committee consider how high and how long the fed funds rate should be.
Rising bond yields weighed on stocks throughout the week, as economic data pointed toward a potential need for further rate hikes. China's flailing economic recovery and warnings of potential bank downgrades added to the market's woes.
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Although there's been somewhat of a seesaw pattern, the rise in the UST 10-Year yield really began back in early April.
Amazon's Prime Day sales event propelled ecommerce sales up 1.9%, while strong retail sales across the economy, led by sportswear, restaurants, and apparel, rose 0.7% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year.
The U.S. budget deficit, which has been a point of discussion among economists and investors, recently received a downgrade in credit rating from Fitch Ratings agency, citing expected fiscal deterioration, a high and growing general government debt burden, and erosion of governance.