It appears the US is on the path to completing trade deals with the largest countries in the world which will change the terms of trade between the respective areas. And then there was the signing of the Genius Act.
Like a pilot advising his passengers to keep their seat belts buckled in case of potential air pockets, over the past two days, it seemed advisable to buckle up for a potential pop in volatility. Consider VIX to be the price of parachutes when a plane hits turbulence.
After a secular rise in equity prices in 2023 and 2024, extended valuations and high concentration laid the groundwork for factors to stabilize market excesses. In the context of risk efficiency, the factor-driven narrative becomes even more compelling.
Despite rising geopolitical risks, tariff threats, and shifting rate expectations, global markets remain resilient—buoyed by strong fundamentals, easing inflation, and tactical policy pivots across major economies.
This week brings numerous critical events, including key economic reports, significant Treasury auctions, major central bank decisions, high-profile earnings, and a court case reviewing presidential tariffs.
Colors are a particularly powerful tool of quiet but effective expression. The bleaching of corals in marine ecosystems is therefore a silent warning.
Two themes developed with fresh economic data released last week. First, June inflation data painted a mixed picture. The second theme revolved around consumers, who continued to be a source of strength for the economy.
The framework aligns risk attribution with the way investors construct and manage portfolios — ensuring that risk insights reflect the investment process and are not dictated by the risk model construction.
Governor Christopher Waller’s reminder this morning that he’d prefer a rate cut this month coincides with the White House looking for Fed Chair Powell’s replacement. And investors are taking it well.
On top of all the geopolitical headlines the money and bond markets have had to contend with of late, there has been another news story that has recently garnered its own fair share of headlines: a new Fed chair.
Amid the noise, August presents a tactical opportunity—if fiscal hurdles clear. With yields shifting, investors may eye short-term moves with cautious optimism.
It’s not often that you get a clean sweep of bullishness across the board. But when all of these indicators rise simultaneously, it typically isn’t associated with rising stock prices; one would expect stocks to decline.