By: Jose Torres, Senior Economist

Volatile trading on Wall Street has risk assets and fixed income swinging from gains to losses indecisively as investors await clarity on AI and the status of employment prior to making bold wagers. This Wednesday’s earnings results from Nvidia and the September Jobs Report on Thursday are top of mind because they have the potential to materially impact the perceived trajectory of the modern technology as well as the Federal Reserve’s path. The two developments coincide at a time when participants are questioning the return implications of significant capital expenditures alongside how much additional accommodation the US central bank can provide amidst a CPI that carries a 3-handle. Indeed, the skepticism has driven stocks to a negative November so far, as AI and deep rate cut expectations had justified the bulls for the past three years. Now, however, Fed watchers anticipate a December pause with the odds of a reduction having fallen below 50%. There’s not much conviction in markets today, but traders are scooping up volatility protection instruments in case the largest company in the market disappoints, derailing mag 7 enthusiasm, or if payrolls come in too strong, bringing the probability of a trim down towards 0. The greenback, equities, Treasuries and forecast contracts are catching modest bids at the moment though. Conversely, crypto is suffering downside and all of the major commodities minus crude oil and silver are lower.

Bulls Can’t Tolerate Too Much Job Weakness

There’s no question that market bulls want to a beat-and-raise from Nvidia, but when considering what the desired outcome is for jobs, things get complicated. A fragile result would certainly tilt the odds in favor of a December cut; however, a figure that reflects too much weakness could ignite slowdown concerns and fail to lead to equity price appreciation, although Treasurys would rally. On the other hand, a strong showing would serve losses to both asset classes because it justifies the Federal Reserve’s hawkish posturing of the moment. A number that narrowly misses the 50k median estimate would signal that the cycle remains positive, supporting corporate earnings growth, while also bolstering the case that monetary policy is too tight.

International Roundup

Singapore’s Trade Surplus Grows

Singapore’s trade balance jumped from $SGD 5.69 billion in September to $SGD 7.25 billion last month with strong demand for non-monetary gold and electronics pushing non-oil exports up 22.2% year over year (y/y), according to Enterprise Singapore. Shipments abroad accelerated dramatically from September’s 7%, hike, but the month-over-month (m/m) pace slowed from 13.1% to 9.3%. 

From a broader perspective, total exports in October were 25.2% higher than in the year-ago period following September’s 14.5% y/y rise. October imports were up 21% y/y, climbing from 14.8% in the preceding period. Total non-oil exports to Thailand, Hong Kong and Taiwan led the y/y growth, climbing 91.1%, 66.9% and 61.5% Conversely, exports to the US sank 12.5% with electronics tanking 22.8%.

Japan GDP Contracts Less than Expected

Japan’s third-quarter gross domestic product growth is believed to have declined 0.4% quarter over quarter (q/q) and 1.8% y/y, according to preliminary estimates from the country’s Cabinet Office. While a reversal from the 0.6% q/q and 2.3% y/y expansion in the second quarter, the metrics were better than the economist consensus estimates for declines of 0.6% and 2.5%. While the country’s central bank is expected to raise its key interest rate in the foreseeable future, Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has been pushing for additional stimulus, a position that is likely to gain support following yesterday’s GDP release. During the recent quarter, private residential investment and exports were the largest drags on results.

The following categories, while positive, failed to push the headline numbers into positive territory:

• Capital expenditures, up 1% q/q after a 0.8% gain in the second quarter
• Capacity utilization, 2.5% higher q/q after slipping 2.3% in the second quarter
• Private consumption, up 0.1% q/q matching the consensus estimate but slowing from 0.4% in the April through June period.
• Industrial production, 2.6% higher month over month (m/m) after slipping 1.5% in the preceding period. Economists expected a 2.2% improvement.

Gas Prices Help Contain Canada Inflation

Easing pain at the pump caused Canada’s headline annualized inflation to soften, increasing the likelihood that the country’s central bank will stick with its bias toward holding its key interest rate stable. The Consumer Price Index for October posted 2.2% y/y and 0.2% m/m increases. While the y/y number slowed from 2.4% in September, October’s price gains on a m/m basis strengthened modestly from the 0.1% ascent rate of the preceding period. The core version, which excludes items with volatile prices, was up 2.9% y/y and 0.6 m/m compared to September’s prints of 2.8% and 0.2%.

Motorists caught a break at filling stations with gasoline stickers slipping 9.4% y/y and 4.8% m/m, due to a switch to cheaper winter blends and concerns over excess supply driving down crude oil prices. Food, while still more costly, was up 3.4% y/y, slightly lower than the 3.8% jump in September. Other significant changes included clothing and footwear, which sank 0.3% after climbing 0.8% in the preceding month and transportation, with costs up only 0.7% after rising 1.5% in September.

South Korea Trade Surplus Falls Slightly

South Korea’s exports grew 3.5% y/y in October, slightly slower than the 3.6% ascent in the preceding month. Imports sank at the same 1.5% y/y rate as in September, resulting in the country’s trade deficit falling from $6.06 billion to $6 billion.

Originally posted on November 17, 2025 on Traders’ Insight

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