Author: Gary Harloff
Covestor model: Opportunistic ETF
I see the markets higher by about 10% in 2012. Europe and Asia will continue to slow down, and I expect Europe will enter an 18 month recession. Asia will slow because their markets will be under pressure with relatively high unemployment in Europe and the U.S.
Commodities will also be under pressure, due to slower emerging market growth. Tensions will rise in the Middle East over oil, Iran and Israel.
I believe the U.S. will remain the safe haven for international investment. Our GDP growth should increase to about 3.5% next year. This will be good for the U.S. stock market, employment and housing. And U.S. banks should begin to rise early in the year.
I don’t see a recession coming in the U.S in 2012. We had a falling market in equities from early July 2011 to late September. This was induced by the international sovereign banking-induced liquidity problems.
