Spanning the Globe: YPF Ruling, Japan’s Rates, and Vietnam Storms

By: Yale Bock, Y H & C Investments

In August, a New York appeals court ¹ ruled Argentina does not have to turn over the controlling stake of Argentina based energy firm YPF to holders of a $16 billion judgment. The decision grants Argentina time during the appeals process, which is expected to take months, to evaluate how to pay for this liability. The Vaca Muerte is an oil and gas deposit which is estimated to contain the world’s second largest shale gas reserves and the fourth largest unconventional oil reserves. The Milei government has opened up its development by not restricting capital investment and partnership to Argentina domiciled companies. The major bottleneck for production and growth is the lack of pipelines, export terminals, and storage and processing facilities to support higher production. Estimates of the Vaca Muerte energy possibilities are it being able to supply both Argentina’s and Brazil’s full energy needs. It is not out of the realm of possibilities exports to other parts of South, Central, and North America exist as well. The first partnership infrastructure projects from private capital are scheduled to be completed in 2027. The IMF and Argentina reached a $20 billion, 48-month deal for funding in April of 2025. In July, the initial $2 billion of the funds was approved to be distributed. Argentina needs to rebuild its foreign reserves in order to help continue to lower financing costs and improve credibility with global investors. Over the last few months, the travel season has seen net capital flow out of Argentina, not helping Milei’s efforts. Argentina is scheduled to have national, provincial, and residential elections on October 26, 2025. The outcome will certainly have an effect on Milei’s efforts to revitalize the energy sector and perhaps turn Argentina into an energy power. If the results were to favor Milei, the effect on the western hemisphere, and global energy, could be transformational.

More on Milei’s efforts-Milei Digs In to Defend Argentine Peso Before Midterm Elections – Bloomberg ²

In Asia, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in October by .25% (to .75% from .50%). The timing of Japan’s meeting allows it to see what Jerome and the Fed will do during their meeting in September, probably a twenty-five-basis point cut. Some investors believe the Yen is the key currency to watch across the globe as it is involved in many different funding situations. As an example, if one were to enact the current carry trade by borrowing Yen to invest in dollars, the spread of 3.5% in those currencies probably does not negate the currency risk. If you are interested in a convertible bond strategy, here you go- ³

Elsewhere, over the weekend, typhoon Kajiki reached land in Vietnam and China. It is causing hundreds of thousands to evacuate and seek secure shelter. Hurricane season typically arrives now in the Gulf of Mexico so let’s hope nothing like Kajiki arrives here in the US.

Originally posted on September 2, 2025 in Y H & C newsletter and blog

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