By: Yale Bock
The world is focused on the conflict between Iran and the United States. What the outcome looks like is the crucial question for the entire world. It seems clear that Iran’s military capabilities are in the process of being severely degraded for a long time. The prime reason for the attack was the nuclear ambition of Iran. The issue of Iran’s existing uranium and whether it is still available for enrichment in the future remains a high priority for the United States and Israel. If Iran is still in control of this energy source and the existing leadership remains in power, they will continue to pursue their nuclear ambitions.
The second key issue is how much of Iran’s military capabilities remain intact, specifically their ballistic missile arsenal. With daily launches toward Gulf countries and Israel, the idea that any population has to spend every day running in and out of bomb shelters is not going to work. In combination with nuclear ambition and ability to deliver it, Iran could potentially rebuild and strike, unless this aspect of its military operations is eliminated.
The third major item is the question of access through the Strait of Hormuz for global shipping. With so much oil and gas around the region affected by this critical area, who is in control, what the security situation is, and what the terms for access are are all questions that remain unsettled. The major countries of Asia, (China, India, and Japan), as well as the mature ones in Europe, especially the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, are all vulnerable to any disruption of oil and gas supplied from the Gulf. Interestingly, when the US asked for financial or military help in managing the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck, these countries were reluctant, if not dismissive, to participate. In the event the US attempts to take over or disrupt fuel from Kharg Island (home to 90% of all Iranian oil and gas exports), or the other small islands in the Strait, which serve as the toll bridges for transport, these countries will certainly need to reconsider this posture. How will this be resolved? It is the multi-trillion-dollar question.
All these critical questions are dependent on who the leadership of Iran is. As of right now, it is anybody’s guess as to who is running the country. The existing leadership appears to be the IRGC, as most of the prior leaders have been killed. This is still an extremely authoritative group that recently not only killed over thirty thousand of its own citizens merely for protesting existing country conditions, but proceeded to charge family members thousands of dollars for the right to look for their bodies. In the event of a leadership change, it could bring drastic changes across the region and globe. Time will tell how this plays out.
Originally posted on April 1, 2026 on Y H & C Investments blog and newsletter
PHOTO CREDIT: https://www.shutterstock.com/g/EgorovArtem
VIA SHUTTERSTOCK
DISCLOSURES
Return figures come from the March 31, 2026, edition of the Wall St. Journal. Y H & C Investments may have positions in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Nothing in the newsletter should be taken as an offer to buy or sell individual securities. It is the responsibility of each investor to research the investments mentioned so they can decide on the appropriateness and suitability of the investments consistent with their risk tolerance, risk constraints, and return objectives.
