New Indicators Rattle Investors

By: Gerry Sparrow

Stocks fell last week as concerns about sticky inflation and the pace of economic growth rattled investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.66 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.51 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 2.51 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, was essentially flat (+0.04 percent).^1,2

S&P 500 Hits New High, Then Slips

Following the Presidents’ Day holiday, stock prices were largely range-bound on Tuesday despite some intraday volatility. Then stocks edged higher, shaking off some new tariff talk and disappointing housing starts data. The S&P 500 marked its third record close of the year on Wednesday.^3,4

On Thursday, stocks were under pressure from the start of trading after a weaker-than-expected outlook from a mega-retailer. The update reinforced some concerns that the economy may be slowing. The selling accelerated on Friday after a consumer sentiment survey showed investors are unsettled about the inflation outlook.

Friday’s decline was the worst of the young year.⁵

^{Source: YCharts.com, February 22, 2025. Weekly performance is measured from Friday, February 14, to Friday, February 21. TR = total return for the index, which includes any dividends as well as any other cash distributions during the period. Treasury note yield is expressed in basis points.}

Economic Jitters

Investors were forced to navigate a week of disappointing news about the economy and inflation.

First, traders were surprised to hear about slowing demand at the country’s biggest retailer, which soured the outlook for the consumer and the economy. Then, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey fell by 10 percent in February as consumers expressed concerns about higher inflation ahead of possible new tariffs.⁶

This combination prompted investors to move into a “risk-off” position before the weekend. 

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday:  Consumer Confidence. Fed Officials Lorie Logan and Thomas Barkin speak.

Wednesday:  New Home Sales. Fed Officials Thomas Barkin and Raphael Bostic speak.

Thursday:  Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Durable Goods. Weekly Jobless Claims. Pending Home Sales. Fed Balance Sheet.

Friday:  Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) Index.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; February 21, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

Originally posted on February 25, 2025

PHOTO CREDIT: https://www.shutterstock.com/g/Rawpixel

VIA SHUTTERSTOCK

Footnotes and Sources

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