Author: Mark Holder
Model: Net Payout Yields Model
Disclosure: Long GPS, ETR
March was another solid month for this model, as it beat the benchmark – up 1.95% versus a slight loss for the S&P 500. The model also wrapped up a solid first quarter with a 6.57% gain. For a Risk Score 1 model, the goal remains to outpace the benchmark by a slight amount each month, with greatly reduced volatility as opposed to models in higher risk scores.
Trades
For the month, the model sold Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) and United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) as their net payout yields dropped below acceptable levels.
Those two stocks were replaced with Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Entergy (NYSE: ETR).
GPS maintains a modest dividend of approximately 2% (as of 4/1/11), but has made significant buybacks in the last few years. On February 24th, GPS announced its Board of Directors approved an additional $2 billing share repurchase authorization and a increase in the annual dividend to $.45 for 2011. For Q4 alone, they repurchased $598M of stock or an annualized rate of nearly 18%.
ETR is another top net payout yield stock, having a solid dividend of nearly 5% (as of 4/1/11) plus regular stock repurchases. The stock was hit after the nuclear issues in Japan caused concerns overly their nuclear operations in northern United States, providing for an ideal entry point.
After a weak few months, Lorillard (NYSE: LO) popped on numerous reports that their menthol cigarettes didn’t propose greater risk. In fact according to a Bloomberg report, a Vanderbilt University study found that menthol cigarettes may pose a lower risk for lung cancer.
That said, this model doesn’t research the fundamentals of the stocks it holds. Rather, it lets the net payout yield speak for itself. Even after this run in Lorillard stock, the dividend yield is still 5.5% as of 4/1/11 and the company made significant stock repurchases in 2010.
Conclusion
This model continues to gain momentum as higher dividend stocks come into focus after a weak year-end when the dividend tax rate was in question. Many of the stocks in this model continue to have yields that are more attractive then bonds or treasuries yielding significantly less in this low interest rate environment.
Mark A. Holder
Chief Investment Officer
Stone Fox Capital
Sources:
“Gap inc. Announces new $2 billion Share Repurchase Authorization and Plans to Increase Dividend for 2011“ Company Press Release, 2.24.11 http://www.gapinc.com/content/gapinc/html/media/pressrelease/2011/med_pr_ShareRepurchase02242011.html
“Menthol May Pose Lower Lung-Cancer Risk, Vanderbilt Study Finds” Bloomberg, 3/23/11, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-23/menthol-may-pose-lower-lung-cancer-risk-vanderbilt-study-finds.html?cmpid=yhoo
