Author: Gerry Wollert (Rebound Trading Systems)
Covestor model: Rebound Mutual Fund
Disclosure: None
The broader markets continued to advance during the month of February, 2011. This positive performance was encouraging given the civil unrest in Northern Africa and the Middle East. I am not a registered investment advisor and I do not try to predict what the market is going to do next month, next quarter, or next year. Rather, I rely on my momentum models and robust buy criteria to tell me when it is appropriate to be invested in the market. I also use a strict stop loss and profit-protect discipline on every trade to let my profits run and minimize my losses. (Note the Covestor replication system does not use stop losses.)
I was 6/7 invested in my Rebound Mutual Fund Trader portfolio at the end of February. I will likely move to a fully invested position if the markets continue to be supportive.
I have been trading Mutual Funds and ETFs for over 20 years. During the last two decades I have seen international mutual funds and International ETFs move in and out of the top tier of my momentum models. It is interesting to note that during the most recent four months, international ETFs are no longer at the top of my momentum models. I have sold most of my international ETFs and have moved to more attractive sectors in United States markets.
I use an upgrading strategy to continually update my portfolio with the best performing ETFs. When they start to lag, I replace them with an ETF that is exhibiting stronger growth momentum.
All three of my timing models (long, intermediate, and short term) are currently bullish. The markets may be a bit overbought at the present time. The uncertainty in the Oil Market is also a potential depressant on the market. It is always wise to be cautious and keep a close eye on current holdings.
Gerry Wollert, Rebound Trading Systems
