Can Apple live up to the market’s high expectations? (AAPL, MMI)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is set to make a major announcement at a special media event at San Francisco’s Yerba Buena Center for the Arts on March 2. Expectations are high, with many expecting the release of the iPad 2. With Motorola’s (MMI) release of the Motorola Xoom last week, many now expect AAPL to release the iPad 2 with improved technical specs as well as a front and possibly also a rear camera. MacLife says:

The general consensus is faster, thinner, (maybe) lighter and probably packing at least one front-facing camera to enable FaceTime chat with others on the iPhone 4, iPod touch and Mac.

The iPad’s innards will also get an update, presumably with a faster processor (what Engadget and others are calling the “A5”) and most definitely extra RAM, at least a bump to 512MB — you may have noticed the iPad feels a bit creaky at times after going from iOS 3.1.3 to iOS 4.2.1, and double the RAM on top of a processor speed bump would certainly take care of that problem.

AAPL shares have risen nearly 70% over the last year, with the broader tech-dominated NASDAQ up approximately 20% over the same period. Despite this, some observers, such as The Balanced Bull at Seeking Alpha, argue that AAPL is fairly priced for its long-term growth, even if it does suffer a short-term correction:

I have no problem with people shorting a stock or predicting a correction but I’m also kind of a stickler for reality and facts. The reality is that Apple will continue to grow this year and beyond. Even the best stocks go through consolidations and corrections, and these are healthy, but as long as the fundamentals keep rolling, so will the stock. Apple ran from $320 to as high as $365 very quickly and could be due for a pullback but as an investor my focus stays on the company’s operations, not weekly share price movements or the opinions of talking heads. And from what I can see, the fundamentals for Apple remain very strong.

AAPL closed down 1.1% and MMI closed down 2.32% on 3/1/11.

Covestor models that hold AAPL as of end of day 3/1 – click through for more info on the models:

  • Suncoast Equity from Suncoast Equity Management
  • Mid-Cap Fundamentals from John Ballard
  • Pure Growth and Growth Plus Income from BSG&L Financial
  • Bottom-Up Concentrated from Harsh Nahar
  • Bottom-Up Analysis and Bottom-Up Analysis Agg from Epic Advisors
  • Large Cap Growth from AlphaMark Advisors
  • Opportunistic Arbitrage Long Only and Opportunistic Arbitrage from Mark Holder
  • Long Term Value from Sreeni Meka

Covestor models that hold MMI as of end of day 3/1 – click through for more info on the models:

  • Large Cap Value from Bristlecone Value Partners

Sources:

“7 iPad 2 (and More) Predictions for the March 2 Apple Event” J.R. Bookwalter. Maclife, 2/28/11. http://www.maclife.com/article/features/7_ipad_2_and_more_predictions_march_2_apple_event

“Apple Inc.: NASDAQ:AAPL quotes & news” Google Finance, 3/2/11 http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1299029555309&chddm=98923&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC&cmptdms=0&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0

“In Defense of Apple’s Share Price” The Balanced Bull. Seeking Alpha, 2/23/11. https://seekingalpha.com/article/254105-in-defense-of-apple-s-share-price