Author: Yale Bock (YH&C Investments) August 30, 2010 US Economic & Financial Markets Outlook: The “We’re “Bleeped” Economy (Louis Black), Bonds vs. Stocks, and Why the Bond Market Might Be the Biggest Threat to the U.S. Economy. Louis Black is a hysterically funny comedian, which is special, but even more […]
Strategies
3490 posts
There has been a lot of talk recently about a possible double-dip recession. I think many investors are overreacting, not because I think another recession is unlikely, but because most people don't really know much about the economy and how economies work in general (myself included). The economy is too large and complicated for anyone to fully comprehend. It's a worldwide complex adaptive system with billions of moving parts. Trying to predict the economy is like trying to predict the stock market.
The cover of the August 30th issue of Barron’s might well have read “Abandon Hope All Ye Individual Investors Who Enter Here” (apologies to Dante Alighieri). First, Alan Abelson informs us that the deck is stacked against us, then Vito Racanelli tells us it’s not a stock picker’s market, and later on Jim McTague explains how the May 6th Flash Crash might have been rigged. What’s an independent investor to do? Follow the herd into the bond market? Find refuge in cash?
is is my August investment letter regarding my dividend value model (J:HDGB). As you know the models goal is to seek and attain above average dividend yield with some capital appreciation while minimizing market risk. I must admit that beating the index was not the intended goal of this model. However I am proud to point out that the model is still beating the S&P 500 as of September 3, 2010, which remains remarkably encouraging.
The S&P 500 has fallen approximately 13% between August 27, 2010 and its recent April 23, 2010 high and being 90% cash during this period was not a bad place to be. The lower market in August allowed us to put a bit more money to work. We added Chipmos Technologies (IMOS) and Bank of America (BAC). We believe both will contribute to long term future performance.
August 30, 2010: The S&P 500 index is down 4.94% for the month of August through August 26, 2010. I see a lot of good values among the top ten stocks in the S&P 500 by market cap. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Proctor & Gamble (PG) are the top four and trade at comparatively low forward earnings estimates. Apple is the only one on the list with significant growth prospects over the next ten years or so and it trades less than twenty times trailing earnings as of August 30, 2010.
The below text is licensed to Covestor Ltd. (“Covestor”), by Dan Plettner. Such text may be disseminated only by Covestor. Dan Plettner invests and receives income for securities research, including “buy-side” research. Dan licenses his own real time trading data to Covestor Ltd. (“Covestor”). Covestor is a Registered Investment Advisor […]
The below text is licensed to Covestor Ltd. (“Covestor”), by Dan Plettner. Such text may be disseminated only by Covestor. Dan Plettner invests and receives income for securities research, including “buy-side” research. Dan licenses his own real time trading data to Covestor Ltd. (“Covestor”). Covestor is a Registered Investment Advisor […]
Covestor model managers Epic Advisors added a couple of new positions to their Bottom Up Analysis Agg model this week. In this model, Epic Advisors uses fundamental analysis and market timing when determining which positions to add. The model is aggressive and mixes core, long-term hold purchases with day trading […]
Author: Patrick Clark Disclaimer: Patrick Clark does not own UUP or IYR in his Covestor Market Neutral Growth Model. August 30, 2010: The overall market continues to look bearish technically. As the market moves lower, my trading rules have reduced my long bias which currently stands at 25%. I expect […]
Author: Gary Harloff Harloff to the Fed: We Need Mo Money Disclaimer: Gary Harloff does not own VMW, AZO, HWK or BIN in this Opportunistic ETF model. August 30, 2010: The big picture is that the Fed is promoting low interest rates and low money supply. The former is to […]
Author: Ben Dickey Disclaimer: Ben Dickey owns LINE, KMP, CAT, BUCY, UTX in his Covestor Growth Plus Model and LINE and UTX in his Covestor Pure Growth Model. August 30, 2010: This summer has been troublesome for investors. Healthcare Reform, Financial Regulation, and other government requirements have stymied the economy […]