By: Michael Kramer
The S&P 500 retreated by about 50 basis points today, finishing above its early morning lows but below its session highs. The area around 7,600 is proving to be a key level, with a sizable amount of options gamma appearing to help support the index. However, that gamma support appears weaker heading into tomorrow’s session, potentially leaving the level more vulnerable if it is not rebuilt through today’s trading activity.
With options expiration this week, positioning could contribute to a pinning effect, potentially keeping the index near the put wall.
The technical chart suggests that if support at 7,600 breaks, there is little nearby technical support below it. The uptrend from the March lows has already broken, and a subsequent retest has failed. With a descending triangle also in place, a gap lower tomorrow could lead to a break below 7,600.
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved above 5% today before pulling back to close at 4.99%, matching its October 2023 closing high. In my view, the Fed is less inclined to push yields lower this time. In November 2023, it changed its statement to refer to “tighter financial and credit conditions”, rather than just “tighter credit conditions”. My read today is that the Fed wants the market to play ball—and that is exactly what it is doing.
What else is different? The anchor that low Japanese yields provided for global rates has lifted, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield now at 3%, compared with roughly 0.95% back then. That makes today’s landscape very different from what it was three years ago.
Looking at the weekly chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, it is hard for me not to see a bullish pattern for yields, suggesting they could move substantially higher. I know some readers have pushed back on this view for years, but I continue to believe rates have been too low for too long. The 5%–5.25% region is now crucial. A break above 5.25% could bring 6.8% into view as the next major technical level.
Originally posted on September 14, 2026 on Mott Capital blog
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FOOTNOTES AND SOURCES
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20231101a.htm
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230920a.htm
DISCLOSURES
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
