A reescalation of Middle East tensions is blowing bearish winds across Wall Street as investors consider the risk that the US-Iran conflict could be prolonged. Another shutdown on the Strait of Hormuz is bottlenecking the flow of critical energy supplies, as Tehran and Washington grapple along the pivotal waterway, even involving strikes in the past two days just as the ceasefire is set to expire this Wednesday. Furthermore, it’s uncertain if both sides will meet in Islamabad before then. The possibility of more violence and a potential oil shortage have raised the cost of crude, lifted interest rates and sent stocks south just as the Nasdaq could have posted its 14th consecutive gain today. It’s precisely the Magnificent 7 names that are weighing on the indices the most, after a ferocious run, and participants are looking for a rotation albeit one that lacks strength, with only the Russell 2000 advancing modestly this session while the other three major benchmarks decline. Traders are hedging equity portfolios as premiums on volatility protection instruments increase, non-energy commodities depreciate, the greenback stays nearly flat and prediction markets and cryptocurrencies catch bids. 

Busy Week Ahead: Warsh, Retail Sales, Earnings

This week isn’t poised to be quiet with investors highly attentive to comments from Washington and Tehran regarding the ceasefire deadline and the conflict overall. With both sides still far apart from each other when considering topics such as uranium supplies, sanctions relief, control of the Strait of Hormuz and the future of the Persian Gulf, there’s a risk of flared up aggressions; however, there’s little appetite to continue fighting a costly battle and that’s keeping a deal or an extension in play for the bulls here. Turning to the Fed, economic data, the Treasury and earnings, Wall Street will pay close attention to Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s views on monetary policy and central bank independence while retail sales will help the market gauge how consumers are holding up in this fresh inflationary environment. Furthermore, demand for US government debt will be on display as bidders line up for $13 billion and $28 billion auctions for 20-year bonds and 5-year notes with price pressure protection on deck for today and tomorrow. Finally, equities have gone on a tear in recent weeks and a primary justification for the jump has been the expectation of robust quarterly profit reports. How firms handle heavier cost forces, loftier interest rates, cyclical uncertainty and an increasingly cautious shopper will be top of mind, and additionally, traders will be incredibly focused on the runway of artificial intelligence and the capital return results of immense business investment dollars into the space.

International Roundup

China Maintains Key Rates

The People’s Bank of China decided this morning to hold its key interest rates unchanged after the country reported last week that its first-quarter economic growth accelerated from 4.5% to 5%. The widely expected decision maintains the organization’s one-year and five-year prime rates at 3% and 3.5% and marks the 11th month without a change.The country has been hit with deflationary forces, but gate prices in March reversed the trend, climbing higher for the first time in more than three years.

Canada Inflation Accelerates Less than Expected

Canada’s Consumer Price Index was up 0.9% month over month (m/m) and 2.4% year over year (y/y) in March, beneath the economist consensus estimates of 1% and 2.5% but accelerating from 0.5% and 1.8% in February. The core CPI, which excludes certain items with volatile prices, came in at 2.5% y/y after February’s 2.3% print. Relative to February, the gauge was up 0.2%, easing somewhat from the 0.4% m/m result in the preceding month.

The headline y/y rate jumped primarily due to higher gasoline prices with overall energy up 3.9% m/m, a reversal from the 9.3% February decline. With the Middle East war constraining the shipment of oil, gasoline prices were 5.9% higher than in the year-ago period. A strong supply of natural gas in North America, however, helped to dampen the overall climb in the headline. Food also became more costly, increasing 4.4% y/y with fresh vegetables jumping 7.8% in response to adverse growing conditions in countries that provide produce. Also in March, restaurants raised their prices by 7.8% y/y. Alcoholic beverages purchased from stores and toys, games (excluding video games) and hobby supplies were up 2% and 1.5% y/y.

Euro Area Construction Contracts

The value of construction in the euro area during February was down 1.9% y/y and 0.2% m/m, according to Eurostat.The contraction was an acceleration from 1.33% drop in January.

Japan Service Industry Slows

Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity Index, which measures spending on services, fell 0.7% in February following January’s 8.7% drop, marking the fourth negative result in the past five months.

UK House Costs Lower than During Year-Ago Period

The cost of buying a home in the UK this month is down 0.9% from April 2025 after sinking 0.2% y/y in March, according to the Rightmove House Price Index, which tracks asking prices for properties that are for sale. On a m/m basis, however, advertising prices were up 0.8%, the same pace of increase as in March. Rightmove reports that demand this month is down 7% y/y, but it notes that activity during the first quarter of 2025 was boosted by shoppers seeking to ink deals before a stamp duty increase. It notes that the m/m price gain occurred despite mortgage rates increasing as a result of the Middle East war.

Originally posted on April 20, 2026 on Traders’ Insight

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