With all the melodrama over fiscal cliff debt talks and recent market gyrations, it’s easy to overlook the positive developments emerging in the U.S. economy. Perhaps the biggest is the solid evidence that a recovery is underway in the scorched American housing market.
An array of data points released in recent weeks suggest the sector has indeed turned a corner. Residential construction contributed 0.3% to the 2% third quarter advance in GDP, according to Bloomberg. Here are four charts that underscore the trend.
US housing starts for October rose 3.6% to an annual rate of 894,000 – a four year high:
US Housing Starts data by YCharts
Sales of existing U.S. homes were up 11% in October, year-over-year:
US Existing Home Sales data by YCharts
The closely-watched Case-Shiller Home Price Index – calculated from data on repeat sales of single-family homes – has been up for the last five months, and registered a 2.25%-plus increase in the second quarter of 2012 over the previous three-month period:
Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National data by YCharts
Not surprisingly, the pickup in home construction and prices have lit a fire under housing stocks. Here’s the performance of Toll Brothers (TOL), Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) relative to the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the past 12 months:
Certain information contained in this presentation is based upon forward-looking statements, information and opinions, including descriptions of anticipated market changes and expectations of future activity. The manager believes that such statements, information and opinions are based upon reasonable estimates and assumptions. However, forward-looking statements, information and opinions are inherently uncertain and actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements. Therefore, undue reliance should not be placed on such forward-looking statements, information and opinions.
The investments discussed are held in client accounts as of 11/20/12. These investments may or may not be currently held in client accounts. The reader should not assume that any investments identified were or will be profitable or that any investment recommendations or investment decisions we make in the future will be profitable.
Any investments discussed in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only and there is no assurance that the adviser will make any investments with the same or similar characteristics as any investments presented. The investments are presented for discussion purposes only and are not a reliable indicator of the performance or investment profile of any composite or client account. Further, the reader should not assume that any investments identified were or will be profitable or that any investment recommendations or investment decisions made by model managers in the future will be profitable.