An interactive heatmap graphic from the WSJ – it’s getting awfully red out there:
AUTHOR
Mick Weinstein
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Some serious damage was done to the market last week.
It appears the US is on the path to completing trade deals with the largest countries in the world which will change the terms of trade between the respective areas. And then there was the signing of the Genius Act.
There are always reasons to be skeptical of the economy. But from FOMC policy, to earnings, to trade and fiscal policy, the risks on the margin may well be for a better-than-expected outcome.
The dot plot continues to show three rate cuts this year, the same as in December. However, only three cuts are now expected in 2025 (versus four previously) and the long-run neutral rate was nudged up by a tenth to 2.6%.