I believe September will prove to be much more representative of a “normal market” than June, July, or August, simply because the market will have all participants engaged. Summer is always a low volume situation, and as such, prices of stocks can get distorted with wide spreads on low volume. One caveat, I thought the same thing held true two years ago, and when the bottom fell out of Lehman, Fannie and Freddie, etc, I was surprised at the magnitude of the selling for the next 6 months. I do not see any events like that on the horizon, and I do not believe we will have a double dip recession. I also believe the bond market is in a huge bubble, and investors will feel the pain of it popping, especially with 2yr, 10 yr, and 30 yr Treasuries trading at all time low yields.
Daily Archives: September 8, 2010
Author: Yale Bock (YH&C Investments) August 30, 2010 US Economic & Financial Markets Outlook: The “We’re “Bleeped” Economy (Louis Black), Bonds vs. Stocks, and Why the Bond Market Might Be the Biggest Threat to the U.S. Economy. Louis Black is a hysterically funny comedian, which is special, but even more […]
There has been a lot of talk recently about a possible double-dip recession. I think many investors are overreacting, not because I think another recession is unlikely, but because most people don't really know much about the economy and how economies work in general (myself included). The economy is too large and complicated for anyone to fully comprehend. It's a worldwide complex adaptive system with billions of moving parts. Trying to predict the economy is like trying to predict the stock market.
The cover of the August 30th issue of Barron’s might well have read “Abandon Hope All Ye Individual Investors Who Enter Here” (apologies to Dante Alighieri). First, Alan Abelson informs us that the deck is stacked against us, then Vito Racanelli tells us it’s not a stock picker’s market, and later on Jim McTague explains how the May 6th Flash Crash might have been rigged. What’s an independent investor to do? Follow the herd into the bond market? Find refuge in cash?
is is my August investment letter regarding my dividend value model (J:HDGB). As you know the models goal is to seek and attain above average dividend yield with some capital appreciation while minimizing market risk. I must admit that beating the index was not the intended goal of this model. However I am proud to point out that the model is still beating the S&P 500 as of September 3, 2010, which remains remarkably encouraging.
The S&P 500 has fallen approximately 13% between August 27, 2010 and its recent April 23, 2010 high and being 90% cash during this period was not a bad place to be. The lower market in August allowed us to put a bit more money to work. We added Chipmos Technologies (IMOS) and Bank of America (BAC). We believe both will contribute to long term future performance.
August 30, 2010: The S&P 500 index is down 4.94% for the month of August through August 26, 2010. I see a lot of good values among the top ten stocks in the S&P 500 by market cap. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Proctor & Gamble (PG) are the top four and trade at comparatively low forward earnings estimates. Apple is the only one on the list with significant growth prospects over the next ten years or so and it trades less than twenty times trailing earnings as of August 30, 2010.